As shipments of new RVs stagnate at a hair above 30,000 a month, posting a near 50% decline year-to-date over 2022, the dealers who sell those RVs likewise are getting a severe haircut. May sales revenue dove 26% from May of last year and was down 28% compared with May of 2021, according to a recent report from the RV Dealer Association (RVDA). But here’s a bright note amid the gloom: all that loss of sales business may mean it’s taking less time to get your RV repaired.
That suggestion—and thus far, that’s all it is—can be teased out of the report’s RV Repair Event Cycle Time (RECT), which the association defines as the time between the start date of a work order and its completion. After reviewing 41,538 work orders around the country, the RVDA concluded that the average RECT in May was 34 days. The good news: that’s down significantly from a 53-day peak in December, and an improvement over the 40 days recorded last May, attributable perhaps to dealers having more incentive to focus on repairs as more profitable RV sales withered.
The bad news? An average score can hide a whole mess of ups and downs.
Just how much variation can be concealed within an average is suggested by another statistical measure in the RVDA report, the median. While the average RECT was computed by adding up all the days it took to complete 41,538 repairs and dividing that total by 41,538, the median establishes the midpoint at which half of all repairs lasted longer and half less. And as the RVDA reported, the median RECT in May was just 11 days.
How can the median be so much less—just one-third—than the average? Because the repairs that took longer than 11 days took a lot longer, as many RV owners already know. Indeed, 25% of all repair customers in May had waited more than 33 days for the job to be done. And while RVDA’s report did not add any additional data points on the long end of the scale, it did note that it had excluded any RECTs exceeding two years. (!) Meanwhile, it’s also worth noting that the median got shifted toward the short end of the time scale because 25% of all customers waited less than three days for the job to be done, presumably because those repairs were relatively minor.
That’s the big picture. The reality, however, becomes more stark when a couple of variables get pulled out of the data: whether repair work is done under warranty, and whether the job requires parts that are not in stock. If the repair was under warranty (42% of the total), the average RECT jumped from 34 days to 50 (RVDA did not break out medians), and if one or more parts are not in stock (24% of the time), the RECT soared to 73 days. Have a warranty repair that also required ordering parts? You looked at an average of 89 days in the shop. Conversely, a non-warranty repair with in-stock parts got you out in 15 days.
Those are national averages, but RVDA also broke out regional numbers, dividing the country into West (11 states), South(16 states), Midwest (12 states) and Northeast (nine states) regions. While the overall RECT averages hardly varied from one to another, the southern states had a clear advantage on both warranty work (a RECT of 46) and when needing to order parts (a RECT of 66). The Midwest fared worst on warranty work (a RECT of 56) and almost worst on the out-of-stock measure (a RECT of 79, just slightly behind the Northeast’s leading 81), which is ironic, considering that Indiana is ground-zero for RV production.
There’s even more variation within those numbers, as warranty RECTs can vary considerably not only within a region but by brand. So, for example, Jayco Eagles had a 108-day RECT in the Northeast states, significantly longer than the next lengthiest RECT by brand, Grand Design’s Solitude in the Midwest, at 99 days. One shouldn’t read too much into those findings, because all that slicing and dicing results in increasingly shaky statistical certainty. The Jayco Eagle, for example, was the tenth most frequently repaired RV under warranty in the Northeast in May, out of a total of 2,612 warranty jobs altogether and an unspecified total number of brands. On the other hand, those statistics indicate just how bad things can get. . . .
In addition to its eye-opening repair statistics, the RVDA report also included purchase figures that underscore the magnitude of the investment RV buyers are making—and therefore why they may get furious when that investment ends up sitting in a repair bay for two, three or more months. The average selling price of an RV in May was $51,896, the association reported, with an average down payment of $8,957 and an average of $50,844 financed over 16 years at an APR of 9.61%. The resulting average monthly payment of $517 means that RV will end up costing $99,264 in monthly installments, or more than $108,000 when adding in the down payment—and more than double the alleged “selling” price.
No one can claim a rapidly depreciating RV makes sense as an investment—but if it’s not that, it should at least be usable.
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