Without sugar, lemonade is still sour

That old adage about turning lemons into lemonade overlooks a key ingredient, without which you’ll still be puckering up. But where’s the sugar in the RV industry’s latest attempt to sweeten an increasingly sour outlook for its members?

Amid a steady decline in RV sales, higher campsite booking costs and increased camping volatility—KOA’s August report finds that extreme weather has prompted two-thirds of campers to change their travel plans—the RV Industry Association is pinning its hopes on the kids. Well, near-kids. The latest monthly report from its Go RVing marketing arm, released a couple of days ago under the headline “Gen Z means business: young entrepreneurship is on the rise,” makes the tenuous case that the RV industry is well positioned to benefit from . . . hustle culture. Otherwise known as burnout culture.

“More and more young people are starting businesses and side hustles with the aim of creating a more fulfilling life,” the report states. “It’s all part of a larger movement among young people to seek more control over their time and income through nontraditional means. . . . As a result, the concept of ‘hustle culture’ is evolving to include more flexible work schedules, working vacations, and personal time,” creating an opportunity for the RV industry to demonstrate “how working from an RV offers flexibility, inspiration, excitement, and relaxation without compromising on productivity.”

If some of that sounds awfully familiar, that’s because it echoes the lofty praise once lobbed at the “gig economy,” a supposed evolution in labor economics that applied “just-in-time” manufacturing principles to the labor force itself. Creating a new class of rootless workers characterized as freelancers and “independent contractors,” the gig economy sold itself as conferring flexibility and independence to people who otherwise would have to labor as “employees” with all the burdens that entails, including steady paychecks, health care and other benefits and the protections of labor laws, such as overtime pay. Yes, there was a segment of the labor force that took the concept and ran with it to enormous personal benefit, notably among tech workers. But for most of the new employment gypsies, “flexibility and independence” meant gnawing uncertainty, less income, longer hours and erratic schedules subject to the whims of the hiring class.

The manufacturing sector learned about the vulnerabilities of just-in-time scheduling when the Covid pandemic struck, but some employers still view workers from the same transactional perspective, albeit with a rebranding change. “Hustle culture” sounds so much better than a gig economy, as witness Go RVing’s unblinking endorsement of the concept. Hustling sounds like energy and ambition, of going places. Never mind that “side hustles” are promoted as a way for people who are insufficiently paid to make enough money to make ends meet.

It’s noteworthy, therefore, that while the Go RVing report cites sources for its observations about the rising incidence of Gen Z side hustles, its conclusions about motives apparently were invented from thin air. If anyone talked to the Gen Zers themselves, they’re keeping it a secret, leaving the field wide open for whatever fairy tales Go Rving wants to concoct. Are Gen Zers hustling “with the aim of creating a more fulfilling life”? Some, for sure—but some undoubtedly because they have no other options. With Gen Zers “more likely to pursue multiple side hustles,” as the Go RVing report observes, is that because they’re seeking “to maximize the value of their time and experiences”—or because, like the Haitians in those old Saturday Night Live skits, they have to work multiple jobs just to keep their heads above water? How much is all this about opportunity—and how much about desperation?

Here’s a clue that tips the balance in an unwelcome direction: total U.S. credit card indebtedness increased by $45 billion in the second quarter, sending aggregate balances over $1 trillion for the first time ever. With that increase also came an increase in the delinquency rate, with 7.2% of credit card payments late by at least 30 days. Any guesses who’s getting hit the hardest? Yup: according to a June study by Quicken Inc., more than half (53%) of millennials and 41% of Gen Z respondents said they were more reliant than ever on credit cards, and Gen Zers had the highest credit card delinquency rates of all.

As reported earlier this week by Yahoo Finance, almost half (49%) of millennials and 55% of those earning under $50,000 a year said they “didn’t see an end in sight” as they live paycheck to paycheck. “Credit card rates are currently in double digits, and not uncommonly 20% or more, which is causing many young people to face a rising debt load,” Quicken’s CEO, Eric Dunn, told Yahoo Finance. “I’m troubled by the compounding problems facing this group.”

Meanwhile, a separate study from TransUnion found that Gen Z credit card balances grew to $55 billion in the second quarter, up from $36 billion a year earlier—an astounding 51.9% increase year-over-year. Half of Gen Z borrowers plan to apply for new credit or to refinance existing credit within the next year, compared to 32% of the general population. At the same time, U.S. News & World Report reported that 46% of student loan borrowers—typically Gen Z and millennials—say they aren’t financially prepared to resume federal loan payments when the pandemic-era forbearance program ends this fall.

If these are the lemons from which Go RVing is hoping to squeeze some industry-reviving lemonade, it better find a whole lot of sugar to add to the mix. What it has now is a bitter, bitter brew.

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RVing a lot? Odds are you’re a woman

GO RVing, the “consumer-facing voice of the RV industry,” has just released its latest demographic profile of RV owners. Given that this voice speaks on behalf of the companies that build and sell recreational vehicles, it’s not surprising that it chooses to highlight the big picture, starting with its finding that RV ownership has increased more than 62% over the last 20 years. All told, there now are 11.2 million RV-owning households in the country–and a whopping 9.6 million additional households say they intend to buy an RV within the next five years.

But that last number should give even the RV Industry Association pause, because it implies that U.S. manufacturers will have to crank out an additional 1.9 million RVs each year for the next five years–more than triple 2021 production, which has broken all records amid growing complaints of shoddy construction. Even assuming that some of those 9.6 million households buy used RVs and not new ones (an unlikely scenario, given the study’s finding that 78% of Millennials and Gen Zers looking to buy an RV want a new one), most sellers presumably will be looking to upgrade to newer units. Subtract those current RV owners who die or simply throw in the towel in disgust at the increasingly crowded RV landscape, and you’re still left with an impossible level of buying demand.

That’s the big picture. However, it’s the granular details that emerge from the demographic profile that are most fascinating–and none is more noteworthy than the link between gender and the amount of time spent RVing.

The GO RVing study divides the RVing population into seven categories, with the three largest groups–“casual campers,” “family campers” and “escapists”–accounting for a combined 88% of the total universe. As the names suggest, these are all RVers with relatively limited time spent in an RV each year, mostly for vacations, with the escapists clocking the longest hours, at an average 55 days a year. A fourth group, the “happy campers,” consist of snowbirds who, on average, spend 180 days in their RVs, essentially using them as seasonal housing.

Two of the remaining groups, on the other hand, are distinguished by their traveling in RVs for extended periods of time: “avid RVers,” the 6% of all RVers who spend an average of 111 days a year on the road; and “full-timers,” at 1.5% of the total. And the striking thing about these two groups is how disproportionately female they are, with 70% of the study’s full-timers being women, as are 64% of the avid RVers.

The GO RVing announcement about its findings focuses primarily on changing age demographics, presumably because a younger-trending market signals more industry growth. But the gender breakdown that GO RVing is ignoring presents numerous RV manufacturing design and marketing possibilities. And the realization that two-thirds of the most committed RVers are women should raise some tantalizing questions for sociologists interested in gender stratification in various occupations and American sub-cultures.