Chill out by camping? Not exactly . . .

Want to go camping? Today’s heat map for the U.S., with the red areas clocking in at more than 103 degrees, are considered “dangerous,” while the darker orange shows highs of 90-103.

Summer is only half over, and the death toll of people out for a walk over the past month is already impressive. Toward the end of June, it claimed a 31-year-old man and his 14-year-old stepson hiking in Big Bend National Park; roughly a week later it added a 57-year-old woman hiking in Grand Canyon National Park. On July 18 it was a 71-year-old man collapsing at a restroom shortly after hiking in Death Valley National Park, two weeks after a 65-year-old man had also died in the park. Four days later, two women, ages 34 and 19, were found dead after hiking into a Nevada state park outside of Las Vegas.

All were doing nothing more remarkable or strenuous than taking a day-hike in areas traversed by countless others. They weren’t roofing a house or picking crops or working at some other job that required them to be outside—they were simply “recreating.” And all had headed into that tantalizing wonderland known as The Great Outdoors during the hottest summer ever recorded, in temperatures that greatly exceeded that of their body cores, seemingly without a second thought about the mortal danger they were courting.

What were they thinking? Can we just write them off as stupid or ignorant, gene-pool outliers that confirm yet again why the Darwin Awards will never run short of nominees? But if that’s the case, what are we to make of the tens of thousands of presumably more aware Americans who each year move to Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Antonio and other gateways to hell, where if the heat doesn’t get ’em, the lack of potable water eventually will?

The fact is that as a species we’re not very good at changing ingrained behaviors, nor are we mentally flexible enough to recognize when a shifting social or environmental landscape makes such changes prudent. We’ve always done things this way, so we’ll continue. And if we do somehow recognize that a change is afoot, we tend to think such change is lineal—a straight-line progression—rather than exponential, which it sometimes is, and which would require a far more robust response from us.

As a result, the prophets are ignored. It’s been just one year since First Street Foundation released its sixth national risk assessment, this one devoted to hazardous heat. The bottom line, as I wrote at the time, was that “extreme danger days,” with temperatures over 125 degrees, would affect approximately 50 counties with 8 million people this year. Presciently, the report went on to claim that extreme temperatures would be concentrated across the middle of the country, in an area stretching from the Louisiana and Texas border north through Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois. The map that accompanied that prediction looks an awful lot like the heat map at the top of this page, generated this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Yet most people are still oblivious to such research, even as the heat keeps cranking higher: Phoenix, for example, which continues to be a relocation magnet, is just wrapping up a full month of air temperatures exceeding 110 degrees every day, never mind the temperatures on asphalt roads and car door handles, which can cause second- and third-degree burns. But people in leadership positions whom we might expect to know more, and to know better, are just as oblivious to the implications of what’s happening—even when those implications pose a threat to their livelihoods. Or maybe that’s precisely why they turn a blind eye.

The campground and RV park industry is the poster child for this sort of willful ignorance. Global warming, climate change, extreme weather—all are subjects that never get broached by the National Association of RV Parks and Campgrounds, whose preferred sense of “leadership” is to promote the latest whiz-bang technology or hotel-derived hospitality trend.

And while Kampgrounds of America has at least started asking campers about their weather-related concerns, it has yet to translate its findings into any kind of action agenda, despite many opportunities to do so. KOA’s July report, for example, found that 62% of campers have changed travel plans because of weather concerns, “with 22% canceling, 22% altering locations, and 18% revising the nature of their trips.” What did KOA learn from that? Apparently only that there’s enough camping demand that nothing much changed, as “approximately 21.5 million households participated in camping” over the July 4 holiday, a level “mirroring the previous year’s.”

Nothing to see here!

So now, as we head into the dog days of August and toward the traditional Labor Day frenzy, it’s steady as she goes. The status quo will prevail. The campground and RV industries will keep enticing people to go camping, with pictures of happy families roasting marshmallows and millennials spooning in their Class B vans, dirt bikes suggestively parked nearby. We’ll hear a lot about about “making memories” and “world class experiences” and about the restorative powers of connecting with Mother Nature.

Just don’t take a walk while you’re out there.

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RVers adopt a wait-and-see attitude

It is a given that industry representatives will insist the sun is shining even as thunderheads pile up on the horizon—and really, who can blame them? But for everyone else, being lulled by rosy forecasts that ignore storm clouds can result in a good soaking. Or worse.

Having declared a month ago that the 2023 camping season was off to a strong start, which is demonstrably true, KOA went out on a limb by assuring the public that campers “are also starting to make solid plans for the rest of the year.” But “solid” requires some context. As previously reported, a year-over-year comparison of KOA’s surveys actually showed a remarkable softening: fewer than half as many campers had made reservations by February for this season as had in 2022 for that year.

The hesitation continues. KOA today released its March monthly report, flagged with the optimistic headline “Rise in camping continues” and citing strong camping turnout at the start of the year. But again it went a step too far, with senior vice president Whitney Scott announcing in a press release that “we’re seeing more bookings made earlier”—yet KOA’s own figures show that 27% of their survey respondents have booked some or all of their 2023 camping trip thus far this year, compared to 50% at this time last year.

There is, undeniably, strong interest in the idea of camping. KOA’s surveys show that, and certainly this year’s near-record turnout at the big RV shows underscores the point. People are looking and day-dreaming, pressing their noses against the display windows of their imaginations as they conjure visions of sweeping vistas and crackling wood fires—they’re just not committing. They’re keeping their powder dry, whether it’s by deferring RV purchases—dealers have been complaining that RV show interest is not translating into sales—or by merely bookmarking campgrounds and RV parks on their computers for a later decision.

The downturn in RV sales, despite industry efforts to characterize it as a return to pre-pandemic norms, is notably larger than expected. Market-leading Thor Industries—whose flagship labels include Jayco and Airstream—earlier this month posted steeper than predicted declines in sales and profits for its second quarter, contending that the sharp slowdown “is proof that our consumer is being impacted by elevated prices, higher interest rates and inflation.” Meanwhile, Winnebago Industries today reported second-quarter results that actually cheered Wall Street because the hole it’s in is not as deep as they’d expected: sales declined from $1.2 billion a year ago to just $866.7 million, or almost $60 million more than the consensus forecast. But helping plug the hole was Winnebago’s 16.1% increase in boat sales, to $112.9 million—apparently a segment that is not taking on water.

A similar pull-back was reported last month by Camping World Holdings, which posted a double-digit decline in same-store new vehicle sales for its fourth quarter—and which cut nearly 1,000 jobs. That mirrors trends in Elkhart, Indiana, where the great majority of U.S. RVs are manufactured and where the unemployment rate in January jumped to just a hair under 5%, more than doubling over the past year.

All this is more suggestive than definitive, as KOA and other industry leaders will be quick to aver. Americans have bought a lot of RVs in the past couple of years, and they’re going to want to use them. An RVing trip is still one of the cheapest ways for a family to go on vacation. Working away from an office is still a thing, and especially among a younger generation of technologically savvy nomads who have been the single biggest demographic of new RV buyers.

All true. But so are the statistics that show millennials are piling on debt to unsustainable levels, while Americans overall increased their credit card debt in 2022 by a record $180.3 billion—and today’s Fed decision, pushing interest rates to a range of 4.75% to 5%, means additional billions in costs in the months ahead. Moreover, millennials and others with college debt can expect an end to the government moratorium on their payments in a few months, further undercutting their ability to afford even relatively cheap vacations—and those, too, are becoming more illusory. RV parks have done themselves no favors by relentlessly increasing their prices the past couple of years.

Recent events have demonstrated just how quickly an apparently stable financial system can get shaken up. Alert RVers are paying attention to the gathering storm clouds, and park owners would be smart to do likewise, regardless of how many rosy forecasts they hear .

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Camping steak: a lot of sizzle, but . . .

The camping PR machine is kicking into high gear, beating the drums for another blockbuster year and working hard to energize the camping public. “Planning Early is a Hot Trend,” according to the Editor’s Notes in the March issue of Woodall’s Campground Magazine. “2023 Camping Starts Strong,” announces the February monthly report from Kampgrounds of America, its findings summarized by one online industry publication as “an exciting outlook for the outdoor hospitality industry.”

Well, not quite. While the Woodall’s piece asserts that early booking is “key for campers who want to stay at specific parks,” that may not be as true of the overall industry. And Woodall’s underlying analysis is based largely on The Dyrt 2023 Camping Report, which may be an interesting read but is almost entirely retrospective, more focused on telling readers what happened in 2022 than what to expect in 2023. Meanwhile, a closer look at the KOA report is revealing: while the February 2023 survey reports that 26% of campers have already booked all or some of their trips for the season, that’s less than half of the 54% who had done so a year earlier, according to that year’s February report.

Demand, in other words, may be quite a bit softer than industry boosters would have us believe. This has been signaled to some extent by a widely reported decline in RV production last year, with 493,268 units rolling off the assembly line—a 21.5% haircut from the all-time record of 600,240 RVs shipped in 2021; moreover, industry forecasts call for only 419,000 shipments in 2023. Optimists have rallied around the observation that even with last year’s steep decline, RV production in 2022 was the third highest in industry history; they’re less likely to note that the second highest level was set back in 2017, and that production declined each of the two subsequent years—until the pandemic turned everything around.

A second set of numbers RV manufacturers are less likely to quote have to do with retail sales. Indeed, the past decade has seen twice as many years in which more RVs were manufactured than were sold, an overall trend that was snapped in 2019 and 2020 before resuming in 2021. Last year there were 45,550 more RVs shipped than were sold, adding to a surplus of 29,469 in 2021, explaining why many RVers report seeing more RVs in dealers’ lots than in some campgrounds.

Replenishing inventory could be seen as a positive sign in an otherwise expanding market, but there’s little data to suggest that’s the case and a growing body of evidence to think otherwise. Americans’ financial reserves are evaporating as pandemic relief programs run out, ongoing inflation is eroding buying power and housing costs remain stubbornly at record highs. Perhaps most telling: credit card debt is at an all-time high, just shy of $1 trillion, and delinquencies among borrowers are accelerating, thanks to record-setting credit card interest rates nearing 20%.

Other storm clouds include an end to the pause on college student loan payments, scheduled for the end of June—just in time to derail the summer vacation plans of Gen Z and Millennial campers that the RV industry has hailed as a much-awaited shot in the arm. Gas prices, meanwhile, remain a wild card: $1 a gallon higher than a year ago but still at a reasonable level, yet with some indications that they might soon be headed for sharp increases.

Amid all that uncertainty, a campground industry that too readily believes its own rah-rah boosterism could be making some major missteps. One indicator of that is provided in the same Dyrt camping report that Woodall’s cited so uncritically, in a pair of statistics under the heading, “property managers respond to demand.” In 2022, 48.6% took advantage by raising their rates—and 46.4% said they plan to do so this year. Whether campers will swallow such increases at a time when consumers are spending more on food and essentials and less on hard goods remains to be seen, but grumblings about higher prices have already been forthcoming.

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